The "experts" say there will be 11 to 16 storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes , and 2 to 4 major (Cat. 3 or higher). For the fun of it I'll forecast 10 to 13 storms, 4 to 6 hurricanes, and 2 to 3 major. It really is a silly exercise to try to guess what will happen, but the main thing is it could be an active season with El Nino wearing off. El Nino cools off the Atlantic and warms up the Pacific and the opposite happens during la Nina. In other words, El Nino is good in that it increases the wind shear and decreases water temps in the Atlantic cutting down on the fuel for storms to develop. These kinds of forecasts are often wrong, but it does serve a point to pay attention to storms. It is true that it only takes one hurricane to make it a terrible season for whoever it hits. It wouldn't hurt to check suppiles just in case one does hit your area since the season is less than two months away and August-September is normally the peak of the season.
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